Migration Watch UK: News

Think-Tank had Immigration Figures Spot on Almost 10 Years Ago

Figures just out show that the number of migrants coming to Britain in the decade ending next year was correctly predicted by think tank Migration Watch – almost 10 years ago.

In 2002 the then newly launched organisation warned that "on current trends we can now expect a net inflow to Britain of at least two million non-EU citizens per decade". The prediction made clear that this included an estimate of 60,000 per year for illegal immigrants of various kinds.

The latest figures (Annex A) show just how telling that prediction was with a total of net non-EU immigration between mid year 2002/03 and mid year 2009/10 of 1.679 million - or over 200,000 a year - and this is without an allowance for illegal immigration.

Said Sir Andrew Green, Migration Watch UK chairman: ‘The latest official statistics demonstrate very clearly that, in addition to just over half a million immigrants from the EU, net non-EU immigration is absolutely on course to hit two million in 10 years as we predicted in August 2002.

‘At the time our projections were met with howls of derision - and often abuse – by the immigration ‘industry,’ particularly in the left wing press,’ he said.‘They tried very hard to denigrate our research and rubbish our findings with accusations that were thinly disguised but clearly meant to imply a racist agenda,’ he said.

‘In fact our figures and predictions have been consistently accurate since our formation, however much they have tried to pretend otherwise.’

An example of the opprobrium heaped upon Migration Watch was this editorial in the Independent on August 6, 2002: "Most offensive of all is the choice of name, a grotesque echo of such groups as Human Rights Watch, with the implication that it is keeping a watch on Ministers who sneakily disguise the true extent of immigration.  Migrationwatch UK is a nasty little outfit, and its duplicitous research should be treated with the gravest suspicion.  The group deserves to fail; sadly in the current climate, it will continue to be given the oxygen of publicity".

An article in the Guardian of 7 August 2002 was entitled "A swamp of muddled thinking".  It described the figure of two million as flawed, both in its composition and its assumptions.

It gives us no pleasure to see that we were right as we have indeed seen the largest wave of immigration in our history, with no public consultation, explanation or coherent justification,’ he said. ‘It is now abundantly clear that the public do not share the enthusiasm for the mass immigration that has changed parts of the UK beyond recognition and has, in many cases, weakened community cohesion.

Said Sir Andrew: ‘It is shameful that the political system was intimidated for so long by false innuendo from the Left about racism. As a result, three million immigrants were admitted by the previous government between 1997 and 2010 while one million British citizens left the UK. All this took place without proper debate and in flat contradiction to the wishes of the British people.  Nowadays the public are clear that enough is enough and they can, at last, express their view by signing our “No to 70 million” petition on the Downing Street website.

Petition Demand for Public’s Voice to be Heard on Immigration

Migration Watch UK have today launched an e-petition calling on the government to stabilise the population of the UK and, certainly, to keep it well below 70 million.The new official population projections issued last week show our population hitting 70 million in 16 years. This is on the assumption that net immigration will continue at 200,000 a year compared to almost 240,000 last year. The UK population was last estimated in 2010 at 62.3 million.

This population increase of more than 7 million is the equivalent of building seven cities the size of Birmingham or fourteen the size of Manchester or Bristol and about two thirds of it (just over 5 million) will be due to future immigration.  Immigration will have to be sharply reduced to about 40,000 a year to stabilise our population.

Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migration Watch UK, said ‘Labour permitted foreign immigration of over three million in the face of strongly opposed public opinion. Politicians need reminding that this is an issue that is consistently one of the top concerns of voters and that it must be addressed, and soon. It is time to stop listening to those who support and, often, make money from the immigration ‘industry’ and consider the views of the people most directly affected. This, at last, is an opportunity for the man in the street to make his views heard where it counts.’

Notes to Editors:

1 The terms of the e-petition are:

"Over the past ten years the government has permitted mass immigration despite very strong public opposition reflected in numerous opinion polls.  We express our deep concern that, according to official figures, the population of the UK is now expected to reach 70 million within 20 years with two thirds of the increase due to immigration. While we recognise the benefits that properly controlled immigration could bring to our economy and society, this population increase, which is the equivalent of building seven cities the size of Birmingham, will have a huge impact both on our quality of life and on our public services yet the public has never been consulted. So we call on the government to take all necessary steps to get immigration down to a level that will stabilise our population as close to the present level as possible and, certainly, well below 70 million."

2 100,000 signatures are required for the e-petition to be sent to the Back Bench Committee to be considered for a debate in Parliament.

3 The e-petition can be found at: http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/19658

4 The 2010-based Population Projections can be found at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_235886.pdf

Comment on Latest Immigration Statistics

In response to the immigration statistics released this morning showing net migration for 2010 at 239,000, 21% higher on last year, Sir Andrew Green said:

"These figures lay bare the legacy of the Labour government with immigration last year close to a quarter of a million, the second highest ever. The coalition government will have to face down some vested interests if to get anywhere near their target of tens of thousands."

Immigration Figures Due for Release on 26 November 2009

Background Briefing

Annual immigration figures for calendar 2008, the last before the election, will be published by the ONS on Thursday 26 November. The note (Briefing Paper 9.26)puts the figures, and Government claims about their immigration policy, into perspective.

We expect the net immigration figure to be about 150,000 compared to 237,000 for 2007 – a drop of 37%.

The reason has very little to do with government policy. 75% of the drop is due to more East Europeans going home.

Contrary to government claims, the new immigration figures have already been largely factored into the latest ONS population projections which point to a UK population of 70 million in 2029.

The projections show no sign of the population increase starting to slow down as the Immigration Minister has claimed. To the contrary, they show continued rapid growth.

The figures will confirm that we are on track for over 3 million immigrants under Labour – even that is not counting illegal immigrants.

Major parties help fringe groups with their silence on immigration. Immigration largely ignored in main manifestos

The three main parties are once again ignoring widespread public concern about the number of immigrants allowed into the UK in their manifestos for next week's European elections.

An analysis of the parties' manifestos on this highly sensitive issue - consistently rated among the top three concerns of the public for a number of years - finds no hint of any desire for an open and frank discussion, let alone any meaningful commitment to bring down the highest immigration levels in our history. The analysis was prepared by think tank Migrationwatch.

'Only last week a YouGov poll showed that more than 7 out of 10 adults want immigration cut by over 80%,' said Chairman Sir Andrew Green.....

See the full text of this Press Release.

Public want a massive cut in immigration. Nearly 80 per cent concerned about the issue.

A 7 out of 10 adults want immigration cut by over 80%. Just 1 in 20 adults support the current level.

The YouGov poll, which was commissioned by Migrationwatch for the Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration, found that 79 per cent of people were “concerned” or “very concerned” about the issue of immigration.

Net foreign immigration – the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants – has run at about 300,000 a year for the last five years.

See the full Press Release for the YouGov poll.

Immigration to account for a new household every 6 minutes

Government projections issued this week confirm that net immigration is now the largest single influence on household formation in England, accounting for very nearly 4 in 10 new households (39%).

The projections show that, over the 25 years from 2006 to 2031, immigration will account for an extra 99,000 households a year - or one every six minutes. This means an extra 2.5 million households by the end of the period out of a total of 6.3 million new households, or nearly 40%. These households would not be formed if immigration was in balance with emigration.

The figures also show a substantial increase of 15% in the number of households expected to be formed in England by 2031 compared to the last estimate which was made only a couple of years ago in 2006. There are large upward revisions for the North East (33%) Yorkshire and the Humber (30%), and the East Midlands (21%). The West Midlands and the East are both revised up by 16% while the South East and South West are increased by about 10%.(see the table below).

Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migrationwatch UK said, "Yet again the government have tried to bury the true picture in the middle of a 17 page statistical release but they cannot conceal the fact that immigration will have a massive impact on housing demand and therefore on our whole quality of life and our environment. It is time that the government faced up to the facts and brought immigration under control instead of seeking to camouflage the true position."

Table 8: 2006-based projections compared with revised 2004-based projections, by English region

thousands	2006-based projection	2004-based projection	Difference
	Average annual change 2006 – 2026	Average annual change 2006 – 2026
North East	9	6	2
North West	28	26	3
Yorkshire & The Humber	31	23	7
East Midlands	28	22	6
West Midlands	22	18	3
East	34	30	5
London	34	33	1
South East	40	36	4
South West	32	29	3
England	258	223	35

 

 

 

Population out of control: Why present policies cannot keep our population even to 70 million

Summary

The government have assured the public that the population of the UK will not be allowed to reach 70 million and that their new Points Based System (PBS) will ensure that this is achieved. Unfortunately, this cannot possibly be so........

Conclusion

……Last year the PBS would have only stopped 11,500 migrants out of 237,000 arriving in the UK.

. It is quite clear that the PBS in its present form will not, of itself, be remotely enough to keep the population of the UK below 70 million. This is not surprising since it does not place overall limits on immigration, and was never intended to do so. It remains to be seen whether the Government will take serious measures, including a much tougher version of the points based system, to limit the impact of immigration on our population. There is no evidence of this so far.

Read the full text of this Briefing Paper 9.21 on population projections which was prepared by Migrationwatch at the request of the Cross Party Group on Balanced Migration.

Cross Party Group Aim for 'Balanced Migration'

The first cross party group of parliamentarians to address how immigration into the UK can be brought back under control has been formed at Westminster.

Headed by two distinguished former ministers, Frank Field, Labour, and Nicholas Soames, Conservative, it is the first time in British political history that parliamentarians from the two main parties have come together to stimulate public debate on the issue and put forward practical solutions.

Under the ‘Balanced Migration’ banner they seek to persuade the Government that, over time, immigration should be brought substantially lower until it is close to the rate of emigration. This would stabilise the UK’s population and greatly reduce the pressures on public services and society.

Their approach, which has widespread public support, aims to ensure that as a nation we strike the right balance between creating a competitive economy with a flexible workforce, and relieving the burdens that uncontrolled immigration is placing upon our society.

Full details can be seen at Balanced Migration.

2.3 Million immigrants come to UK in 16 years

New Government figures have confirmed just how large has been the scale of immigration into the UK in recent years and show that that the vast majority who come to stay are from the third world.

An analysis of the latest immigration statistics from the Office of National Statistics by think-tank Migrationwatch shows that in the years 1991 – 2006 there was a net movement of some 2.3 million people to the UK - only 8% of which came from the new East European members of the EU.

‘As public concern has increased supporters of immigration have tried to give the impression that the majority come from the new EU member states and that, in time as their economies improve, they will return home – thus implying that public fears are groundless,’ said Sir Andrew Green, Migrationwatch chairman.

'But the Government’s own figures show that this is far from the case. They also give the lie to those who claim that there is no point in immigration controls which do not apply to EU citizens,' he said.

The figures show that over the years 1991 - 2006 there was a small group of countries to which more people emigrated from the UK than the number migrating from those countries to Britain. In total, the net movement of people to those countries was 422,000 of whom half went to Australia.

72,000 went to the 15 countries of the EU and smaller numbers left for the United States, New Zealand and Canada. (See bar chart)

All other countries listed, largely from the third world, were the source of more people moving to the UK than vice versa. In total, over the same period, these countries accounted for a net movement of 2.3 million people to the UK. Only 205,000, or 8%, came from the new East European members of the EU.

Said Sir Andrew: ‘The reality is that those who come and stay are almost entirely from countries subject to immigration control. What we need therefore is effective control. Unfortunately, the government’s much vaunted Points Based System is entirely open ended and simply fails to address the deep public concern on this issue.’